Exinity首席市场分析师Han Tan表示：“基准油价已恢复至数月高位，这主要是供应方面的风险再次吸引了市场的注意力。俄罗斯炼油厂遇袭、中国经济数据好于预期以及伊拉克承诺降低石油出口等因素，共同推动了油价在本周初的上涨。”路透社援引StoneX能源分析师Alex Hodes的话说：“尽管炼油活动减少可能导致俄罗斯原油出口增加，但由于该国面临储存限制，这也可能导致原油减产。根据Hodes的计算，对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击可能导致全球石油每日供应减少约35万桶，并使美国 原油价格每桶上涨3美元。”此外，路透社还援引SEB Research分析师Bjarne Schieldrop的话说：“即使袭击不会导致俄罗斯原油供应的直接损失，成品油利润率飙升仍会对油价产生溢出效应。”交易商预计，未来一周俄罗斯石油出口计划可能进一步增加，石油公司预计他们在炼油厂维修上要花费时间，目可能发生新的袭击。路透社援引两位贸易知情人士的话说，俄罗斯3月在西部港口的石油出口将每日增加近26万桶，而最初的月度计划为每日222万桶1日,乌克兰无人机对炼油厂的袭击导致俄罗斯原油加工量下降。消息人士指出，3月份卢克石油(Lukol)公司和俄罗斯石油公司(Rosnet)在波罗的海港口增加两艘73万桶的乌拉尔原油装运计划，这两家公司的炼油厂上周都遭到了乌克兰无人机的袭击。摩根大通(JP Morgan)分析师在一份报告中表示:“除了定期检修关闭外,袭击可能导致俄罗斯原油日产量减少多达30万桶。”

沙特阿拉伯和伊拉克原油出口下降，以及中国和美国需求和经济增长强劲的迹象也支撑了油价。美国商务部报告称，2月份美国独栋住宅建设大幅反弹。房屋建设可以促进经济增长，支持石油需求。瑞银分析师Giovanni Staunovo表示：“令人惊讶的石油需求数据是积极的，欧佩克及其减产同盟国自愿减产延长至6月底也支撑了油价。今年布伦特原油的交易价格可能在每桶80-90美元之间，对6月底的预测为每桶86美元。”

交易商密切关注美联储关于未来利率路径的预测点阵图，以及美联储主席鲍威尔对于降息前景的评论。市场普遍预计，美联储将在周三为期两天的货币政策会议结束时维持利率不变。然而，投资者们仍在等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对当天将公布的最新利率预测的评论，以寻找未来利率走向的线索。美国2月份的消费者价格和生产者价格数据强于预期，降低了由于持续通胀威胁而提前降息的希望。这使得美联储维持高利率的可能性增加，美元周二表现强势，触及两周多来的高点，抑制以美元计价的欧美原油期货涨幅。

康菲石油国际首席执行官Rvan Lance周二预测,美国原油日产量将增长至超过1400万桶,然后高位持稳。他在剑桥能源周(CERAWeek)能源会议上发表讲话时说：“美国最大的页岩油田-得克萨斯州西部和新墨西哥州的二叠纪盆地的页岩油产量今年日均将增加30-40万桶。该公司价值80亿美元的阿拉斯加石油开发项目已全面开工，将耗时四年完工。”市场等待美国石油库存数据，分析师对美国原油库存数据估测相差甚远。接受《华尔街日报》调查的8名分析师平均估测截止2024年3月15日当周，美国商业原油库存4.458亿桶，下降了120万桶，其中6名分析师估测美国原油库存减少，2名分析师估测增加，估测值在减少300万桶到增加100万桶之间。《华尔街日报》调查的8名分析师平均估测，上周美国汽油库存连续八周减少，库存量2.32亿桶，比前周减少210万桶，估测范围在减少70万桶到100万桶之间；估测包括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分油库存减少120万桶，达到1.167亿桶，估测范围在增加170万桶到减少540万桶之间；美国炼油厂开工率87.6%，环比增加0.8%，估测范围在下降0.5%到上升1.5%。

Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity, said: "Benchmark oil prices have recovered to multi-month highs, mainly due to supply side risks once again capturing the market's attention. The attack on a Russian refinery, better than expected Chinese economic data and Iraq's pledge to reduce oil exports have all contributed to a rally in oil prices at the start of the week." Alex Hodes, an energy analyst at StoneX, said: "While reduced refining activity could lead to an increase in Russian crude exports, it could also lead to a reduction in crude production as the country faces storage constraints." According to Hodes' calculations, an attack on a Russian refinery could reduce global oil supplies by about 350,000 barrels per day and add $3 per barrel to U.S. crude prices." In addition, Reuters also quoted SEB Research analyst Bjarne Schieldrop as saying: "Even if the attack does not lead to a direct loss of Russian crude oil supplies, the surge in refined product margins will still have a spillover effect on oil prices."

Traders expect a further increase in Russian oil export plans in the coming week, with oil companies anticipating they will spend time on refinery repairs and the possibility of new attacks. Russia's oil exports from western ports will rise by nearly 260,000 barrels per day (BPD) in March, compared with an initial monthly plan of 2.22 million BPD, Reuters reported, citing two sources with knowledge of the trade. The sources pointed to the planned addition of two 730,000 BPD Urals crude shipments to Baltic ports in March by Lukol and Rosnet, both of whose refineries were hit by Ukrainian drones last week. "In addition to regular overhaul shutdowns, the attacks could reduce Russian crude oil production by as much as 300,000 barrels per day," JP Morgan analysts said in a note.

Falling crude exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as well as signs of strong demand and economic growth in China and the United States, also supported prices. The Commerce Department reported that construction of single-family homes in the United States rebounded sharply in February. Housing construction can boost economic growth and support oil demand. Ubs analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: "The surprising oil demand data is positive and the extension of voluntary production cuts by Opec and its Allies until the end of June is also supporting prices." Brent crude is likely to trade between $80 and $90 a barrel this year, with forecasts for the end of June at $86 a barrel."

Traders are closely watching the Fed's forecast dot plot on the future path of interest rates, as well as comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the outlook for rate cuts. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. However, investors are still waiting for comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the latest interest rate forecast to be released that day for clues on the future direction of interest rates. Us consumer and producer price data for February were stronger than expected, dampening hopes of an early interest rate cut due to the threat of persistent inflation. That made it more likely that the Fed would keep interest rates high, and the dollar was strong on Tuesday, hitting its highest level in more than two weeks, curbing gains in U.S. and European oil futures denominated in dollars.

Rvan Lance, chief executive of Conocophillips International, forecast on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil production would grow to more than 14 million barrels per day and then stabilize at high levels. Speaking at the CERAWeek energy conference in Cambridge, he said: "Shale oil production in the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico, the largest shale fields in the United States, will increase by 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day this year. The company's $8 billion Alaskan oil development project is in full production and will take four years to complete." The market awaits U.S. oil inventory data, which analysts estimate widely. The average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal is that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.2 million barrels in the week ended March 15, 2024, to 445.8 million barrels, with six analysts forecasting a decline and two analysts forecasting an increase, with estimates ranging from a 3 million barrel decline to a 1 million barrel increase. The average estimate of eight analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal is that U.S. gasoline inventories fell for the eighth straight week last week to 232 million barrels, down 2.1 million barrels from the previous week, with estimates ranging from a decrease of 700,000 barrels to 1 million barrels. Estimated distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 1.2 million barrels to 116.7 million barrels, with estimates ranging from a gain of 1.7 million barrels to a decline of 5.4 million barrels. U.S. refinery operating rates were 87.6 percent, up 0.8 percent month-on-month, with estimates ranging from a 0.5 percent decline to a 1.5 percent increase.