评估中东冲突走向，交易商继续获利回吐，欧美 原油期货连续第二天下跌。周二(4月9日)纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油2024年5月期货结算价每桶85.23美元，比前一交易日下跌1.20美元，跌幅1.39%，交易区间85.09-86.98美元；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2024年6月期货结算价每桶89.42美元，比前一交易日下跌0.96美元，跌幅1.06%，交易区间89.25-90.94美元。
 中东局势充满了不确定性，尽管以色列从加沙地区部分撤军，但是停火协议仍然没有达成。周二欧美原油期货盘中涨跌不定。但是多数分析师估计上周美国原油库存会增加， 国际油价早盘上涨后再次收低。在需求上升和欧佩克及其减产同盟国原油减产的背景下，地缘政治紧张局势加剧推动油价上涨，WTI 原油价格今年上涨了约19%，布伦特原油价格上涨了16%。维兰德拉能源合伙公司董事总经理Manish Raj表示:“对于今年以来在油价获得可观收益、希望锁定收益并保持观望的交易员来说，这是获利了结的一天。”
 独立大宗商品交易集团维多的首席执行官Russell Hardy在4月9日表示，如果欧佩克及其减产同盟国保持其生产纪律并继续减少全球市场原油供应，今年原油现货价格可能达到每桶100美元。他在洛桑举行的英国《金融时报》大宗商品全球峰会上表示:“这确实是一个供应受限的市场，但我们今年迄今的平均价格约为每桶83美元，因此，考虑到欧佩克对全球库存的控制，每桶80-100美元对市场来说是一个合理的区间。”
 维多公司预计今年全球石油日产量将增长190万桶，与2023年持平，中国、印度需求增长和航空旅行增加带来的航煤需求增长将继续支撑全球石油需求增长。
 美国能源信息署上调全球石油需求预测和油价预测。在周二发布的《短期能源展望》中预测,美国能源信息署预测今明两年美国原油日产量增幅将略高于此前预期。美国能源信息署预测今年美国原油日产量将达到1321万桶，同比增加约28万桶;预测2025年美国原油日产量1372万桶，同比增加51万桶。而在上期报告中，美国能源信息署预计今年美国原油日产量增加26万桶，明年日均增加46万桶。
 美国能源信息署对美国石油和液态燃料需求量预测保持不变，预计2024年美国石油和液态燃料日均需求量2040万桶，同比增加20万桶。但是，美国能源信息署上调了全球石油和液态燃料需求预测，预计2024年全球石油和液体燃料消费量日均约为1.029万桶，比上次报告预测上调40万桶；预测2025年全球日均需求为1.043亿桶,比上次预测上调50万桶。美国能源信息署认为，在过去两年中低估全球石油和液态燃料需求，这次上调是由于非经合组织国家需求强劲。美国能源信息署表示:“需求增长来源保持不变;非经合组织亚洲国家，尤其是中国和印度，推动全球液体燃料需求增长，尽管预计中东和美国亦出现大幅增长。
 美国能源信息署预计今年布伦特原油平均每桶88.55美元,高于上次报告预测的每桶87美元,而预计美国西得克萨斯轻质原油均价在2024年为每桶83.78美元。在上期报告中，美国能源信息署曾预测今年西得克萨斯轻质原油价格平均每桶82.15美元。美国能源信息署在报告中表示，油价预测上调反映对本季度全球石油库存大幅减少以及地缘政治风险持续存在的预期。
 市场等待美国石油库存数据，分析师对美国原油库存数据估测相差甚远，但是多数分析师认为美国原油加工量继续增加，美国原油库存增加而成品油库存减少。接受《华尔街日报》调查的9名分析师平均估测截止2024年4月5日当周，美国商业原油库存4.522亿桶，环比增加80万桶，其中4名分析师估测美国原油库存减少，5名分析师估测增加，估测值在减少300万桶到增加350万桶之间。《华尔街日报》调查的9名分析师平均估测，上周美国汽油库存量2.264亿桶，比前周减少140万桶，估测范围在减少360万桶到110万桶之间；估测包括柴油和取暖油在内的馏分油库存减少60万桶，达到1.155亿桶，估测范围在增加240万桶到减少300万桶之间；美国炼油厂开工率89.1%，环比增加0.5%，估测范围在下降0.5%到上升1.2%。
 欧美原油期货收盘后，美国石油学会数据显示，上周美国原油库存大幅度增加，同期美国汽油库存减少而馏分油增加。截止2024年4月5日当周，美国商业原油库存增加303.4万桶；汽油库存减少60.9万桶；馏分油库存增加12万桶。库欣地区原油库存减少78.1万桶。
 周二，美国能源部报告称，上周战略石油储备原油库存3.642亿桶，为2023年4月份以来最高水平，比前周增加60万桶。

U.S. and European oil futures fell for a second day as traders continued to take profits assessing the direction of the conflict in the Middle East. On Tuesday (April 9), the New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Light crude oil May 2024 futures settled at $85.23 a barrel, down $1.20, or 1.39%, from the previous trading day, trading range of $85.09 to $86.98; Ice Brent crude for June 2024 settled at $89.42 a barrel, down $0.96, or 1.06 percent, from the previous session, in a trading range of $89.25 to $90.94.

The situation in the Middle East is fraught with uncertainty. Despite Israel's partial withdrawal from Gaza, a ceasefire has not been agreed. U.S. and European crude oil futures were mixed in intraday trading Tuesday. But most analysts expected a rise in U.S. crude inventories last week, and international oil prices fell again after rising in early trading. Rising geopolitical tensions on the back of rising demand and crude production cuts by Opec and its Allies have driven oil prices higher, with WTI crude up about 19 percent this year and Brent up 16 percent. "It's a profit-taking day for traders who have made decent gains in oil prices so far this year and want to lock in gains and stay on the sidelines," said Manish Raj, managing director at Vilandra Energy Partners.

Russell Hardy, CEO of independent commodity trading group Vitol, said on April 9 that spot crude oil prices could reach $100 a barrel this year if Opec and its production cutting Allies maintain their production discipline and continue to reduce crude supplies to global markets. Speaking at the Financial Times Global Commodities Summit in Lausanne, he said: "It's really a supply-constrained market, but we've averaged about $83 a barrel so far this year, so $80- $100 a barrel is a reasonable range for the market given Opec's control over global inventories."

Vitol expects global oil production to grow by 1.9 million barrels a day this year, the same as in 2023, with growth in jet coal demand from rising demand in China, India and increased air travel continuing to support global oil demand growth.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for global oil demand and oil prices. In its Short-term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration forecast that daily US crude oil production would increase slightly more than previously expected this year and next. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will reach 13.21 million barrels a day this year, an increase of about 280,000 barrels a day. Us crude oil production is forecast to reach 13.72 million barrels per day in 2025, an increase of 510,000 barrels per day. In its last report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration expected U.S. crude oil production to increase by 260,000 barrels a day this year and 460,000 barrels a day next year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration left its forecast for U.S. oil and liquid fuel demand unchanged, predicting 20.4 million barrels per day of oil and liquid fuel demand in 2024, an increase of 200,000 barrels. However, the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for global oil and liquid fuel demand, predicting that global oil and liquid fuel consumption will average about 10,290 barrels per day in 2024, up 400,000 barrels from its previous forecast. Global demand is forecast to average 104.3 million barrels per day in 2025, up 500,000 barrels from the previous forecast. The US Energy Information Administration believes that it has underestimated global oil and liquid fuel demand over the past two years, and the revision is due to strong demand in non-OECD countries. The EIA said: "Sources of demand growth remained unchanged; Non-oecd Asian countries, particularly China and India, are driving global liquid fuel demand growth, although the Middle East and the United States are also expected to show significant growth.

The EIA expects Brent crude to average $88.55 a barrel this year, up from $87 in its last report, while it expects U.S. West Texas Light crude to average $83.78 a barrel in 2024. In its last report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration had forecast West Texas light crude to average $82.15 a barrel this year. The US Energy Information Administration said in its report that the increase in the oil price forecast reflects the significant drawdown in global oil inventories this quarter and the expectation of continued geopolitical risks.

The market is waiting for U.S. oil inventory data, and analysts' estimates of U.S. crude oil inventory data vary widely, but most analysts believe that U.S. crude oil processing continues to increase, and U.S. crude oil inventories have increased while refined product inventories have decreased. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal was 452.2 million barrels for the week ended April 5, 2024, an increase of 800,000 barrels from the previous week, with four analysts forecasting a decline and five analysts forecasting an increase, with estimates ranging from a decline of 3 million barrels to an increase of 3.5 million barrels. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal was 226.4 million barrels of gasoline, down 1.4 million barrels from the previous week, with estimates ranging from 3.6 million to 1.1 million barrels. Distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, were estimated to have fallen by 600,000 barrels to 115.5 million barrels, with estimates ranging from a 2.4 million barrel increase to a 3 million barrel decline. U.S. refinery operating rates were 89.1%, up 0.5% month-on-month, with estimates ranging from 0.5% down to 1.2% up.

After the close of crude oil futures in Europe and the United States, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that the United States crude oil inventories increased sharply last week, and the United States gasoline inventories decreased and distillate oil increased during the same period. In the week ended April 5, 2024, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.034 million barrels; Gasoline inventories fell 609,000 barrels; Distillate stocks rose by 120,000 barrels. Crude oil inventories in the Cushing region fell by 781,000 barrels.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Department of Energy reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week were 364.2 million barrels, the highest level since April 2023 and up 600,000 barrels from the previous week.