能源咨询公司伍德麦肯兹在近期的报告中表示，由于炼油利润率将随需求下降而下降，碳税也可能给炼油商带来沉重负担，全球炼油产能的20%以上将面临关闭风险。

伍德麦肯兹分析显示，全球有关闭风险的炼油产能为2020万桶/日，占炼油总产能的21.6%。其中，欧洲炼厂的关闭风险更高。

伍德麦肯兹表示，由于碳排放免费配额的取消，欧洲炼厂的利润率将从2030年开始下降，而发达国家的运输燃料需求预计从2025年开始下降。此外，非洲最大的丹格特炼厂今年投产后，欧洲长期以来对尼日利亚的燃料出口贸易量也可能大幅下降。

与此同时，石油巨头也宣布将关闭欧洲的炼厂，并改造成生物燃料生产设施。如埃尼公司在意大利利沃诺的炼厂，以及壳牌在德国韦塞林的炼厂，后者将被改造成基础油生产厂。

Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in a recent report that more than 20 per cent of global refining capacity would be at risk of closure, as refining margins would fall in line with falling demand and carbon taxes could also place a heavy burden on refiners.

Wood Mackenzie analysis shows that the global refining capacity at risk of closure is 20.2 million barrels per day, accounting for 21.6% of total refining capacity. European refineries are at higher risk of closure.

European refiners' profit margins will start to fall from 2030 due to the removal of free carbon allowances, while transport fuel demand in developed countries is expected to decline from 2025, Wood Mackenzie said. In addition, Europe's long-standing trade in fuel exports to Nigeria is likely to fall sharply when the Dangote refinery, Africa's largest, comes on stream this year.

At the same time, oil majors have also announced that they will close refineries in Europe and convert them into biofuel production facilities. Such as Eni's refinery in Livorno, Italy, and Shell's refinery in Wesseling, Germany, the latter will be converted into base oil production plants.