This report describes an eva luation conducted by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in August 2003 of two methods that estimate natural gas production in Texas. The first method (parametric method) was used by EIA from February through August 2003 and the second method (multinomial method) replaced it starting in September 2003, based on the results of this eva luation.
EIA publishes State-level natural gas production estimates monthly and annually. Texas is the largest producing state, (27% of US production in 2001) and timely Texas production information is very important to EIA and its customers. The principal source of Texas natural gas production data (measured as gross withdrawals) is the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC). Natural gas production values (collected and processed by the TRC) are posted on the TRC website between 45 and 60 days after the close of a report month. The initial values are then regularly revised monthly for about 24 months, and sporadically thereafter.
Posted production values Pj (for a given report month j) typically start out low and approach their “final” values after many months. Figure 1 illustrates this reporting.